Argentine Debt Pact Avoids Trouble Now, May Cause Pain Later

The Wall Street Journal, 4/2/84

Article summary by Nick Smallwood

 

Main Point

For months Argentina has refused to pay interest on its debts and international bankers have refused to lend Argentina more money unless it signs an agreement with the IMF. An ingenious plan devised by Mexican Treasury Secretary Jesus Silva Herzog and engineered by the US treasury and Federal Reserve – and further tweaked by many bankers and international bankers – has been the world’s response to the Argentine crisis. Many have been touting this plan as a constructive development within the international debt situation, involving cooperation between the countries of Latin America, the American government and private banks. Others fear that relationships made through the deal could later be turned against the very banks and system of debt repayments the agreements were originally made for.

The Plan

The points of this plan are as follows:

Why this Plan?

With the $400 million from the loans, and a further $100 million in reserves, Argentina paid back some of the back interest owed to the banks – had they not received these payments, the banks would have no choice but to reclassify the loans as nonaccrual. Banks do not record as income the interest due from nonaccrual loans, and they subtract from current profit any previous interest recorded but not collected. This would have been detrimental to their income statements.

Another reason given for such a plan comes from the Latin American countries involved. Some officials claim that international banks lump all Latin American countries in one group, and it is therefore in their interest to help each other out – some Mexican officials were already blaming Argentina for a delay in putting together a $3.8 billion loan this year

Ulterior Motives?

While banking officials have been skeptical of any possible cartels forming amid the international debt crisis, some people believe that the Argentine Pact is just a way for Latin American countries to form a cartel of sorts, in order to have more control over the repayment of their debts.

For one thing, this whole package only amounts to a little bit of breathing room for the banks. Argentina still has about $2 billion in back interest to pay, and the creditors will likely face the same problems soon. More importantly, while Latin American countries are joining forces to help repay debt this time, next time they may join forces to seek more lenient repayment terms for debtors.

Costs of the Plan

Argentina:

For Argentina, the main costs come at the added pressure to agree to IMF terms (mainly to not continue to raise real wages). This pressure will mostly come from the risk of alienating its Latin American neighbors.

The rest of Latin America:

Argentina’s neighbors also have political risk involved. Mexico and Brazil have already been through very intense austerity programs; their populations might not be very happy to see them promoting them as an international standard. It is important that this plan be viewed as an example of Latin unity, and that the countries involved not be viewed as "tools of the banks."

Banks

The risk that banks have in this pact is seen through the growing split between US banks and their regional and European counterparts. European banks have more favorable tax treatment on write-offs, a more flexible regulatory system and higher profit margins; regional American banks have a small stake involved in international loans of this sort. With much money involved and much more stringent laws and regulation, US banks are prepared to lose much more in these situations.